Brazil Corn Forecast
- According to a newswire poll, the average forecast for Brazil’s corn crop is 108.2 million tonnes, in line with the USDA’s projected 109 million.
- If realized, total output will be 5.5% above last season's record 102.5 million tonnes.
- The area planted to corn is forecast to increase by 1 million hectares to 19.44 million hectares, or approximately 48 million acres.
- Second crop or safrinha corn will represent about 80% of total Brazil corn production this year.
- Soybean harvest delays are leaving producers unable to plant the second corn crop in a timely fashion.
- Second corn planting is estimated at 24% complete through February 18 compared to 51% planted at this time last year.
FBN’s Take On What It Means: Brazil’s producers are expanding production due to the record high prices being paid. The significant increase in the corn planted area may offset the effects of potential yield losses in the safrina corn production due its lateness. However, the market will likely keep risk premium in prices as potentially more than half of the second crop will be maturing further into Brazil’s dry season.
Cold Weather Impact On Wheat
- There have been three severe cold outbreaks in Europe since the beginning of January into February with the last affecting the largest area.
- Europe's crop monitoring service reported some frost damage is expected to have occurred in areas without significant snow cover, but the level of damage is expected to be minor.
- The extreme winter storm that recently moved across the US was also seen as harming winter wheat crop conditions.
- KS conditions decreased to 40% good to excellent compared to 43% last month and 35% last year.
- NE was unchanged for the month at 34% good to excellent, but well below 69% last year.
- OK conditions fell to 48% good to excellent from 61% last month, but remain slightly above last year’s 46%.
- TX ratings ticked up to 30% good to excellent versus 29% last month and 31% last year.
- IL conditions fell to 46% good to excellent from 65% last month and are below 56% last year.
FBN’s Take On What It Means: Spring weather will likely be much more important to crop prospects than current conditions, and the market won’t start getting a better handle on that until March/April. KS and OK will release weekly condition reports in March, and weekly national reports are scheduled to start in April. Winterkill concerns will likely help keep some support underneath prices until yield potential can be further assessed.
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