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Jun 23, 2021

Brazil Corn Crop Projected Lower

New crop U.S. corn will see most benefit as importers will have fewer options

Brazil Corn Crop Projected Lower

  • A Reuters poll of analysts sees an average forecast of 94 million tonnes of corn production this season.

  • If realized, it would represent a fall of 8.5% from 102.58 million tonnes harvested last year.

  • Forecasts ranged from 88 to 104 million tonnes compared to the latest projections from the USDA at 98.5 million and CONAB at 96.4 million.

  • Reuters polled analysts in April and showed potential for a record crop of 107 million tonnes on average.

  • Crop failure due to a severe drought will lead to higher imports and lower exports.

  • There is room for corn yields to fall further if dry weather persists in Mato Grosso and neighboring regions.

  • Further south, Parana has reported a slight improvement in conditions after recent rains.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Brazil’s corn crop issues have been well documented and have been a significant part of this year’s price rally. New crop US corn will see the most benefit as importers will have fewer options as Brazil exports run dry quicker.


EU Crop Monitor Raises EU Yields
  • The agency raised crop yields for several commodities.

  • Soft wheat yields are seen at 6.01 tonnes per hectare, up from 5.91 tonnes in May and 5.6% above the average.

  • Barley yields are seen at 4.97 tonnes per hectare, up from 4.89 tonnes previously; of that, spring wheat barley yields were raised to 4.28 tonnes up from 4.17 tonnes in May.

  • Corn yields are seen at 7.84 tonnes per hectares, up from 7.81 previously.

  • Rapeseed yields also were raised but only marginally.

  • The rapeseed yield is forecast at 3.23 tonnes versus 3.21 tonnes earlier.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Slightly higher yields across EU crops do not necessarily change the overall fundamentals but do suggest that weather concerns from earlier this season were overdone. The EU is set to have solid harvests across commodities though rapeseed area is not large enough to result in a shift in that balance sheet’s outlook. For wheat, we do expect the EU to be a strong exporter for 2021/22, coming in second place behind Russia.

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Kevin McNew

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Marketwatch: Dec, 03

cmdty National Corn Price Idx: ZCPAUS.CM

open: 5.6309
high: 5.6797
low: 5.6159
close: 5.6309

cmdty National Soybean Price Idx: ZSPAUS.CM

open: 11.9852
high: 12.1581
low: 11.9477
close: 12.111

cmdty National Hard Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: KEPAUS.CM

open: 8.119
high: 8.2535
low: 8.054
close: 8.2002

cmdty National Soft Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: ZWPAUS.CM

open: 7.5939
high: 7.7096
low: 7.5239
close: 7.6525