Dec 08, 2020

Markets Struggle Without Confirmation of New Demand

China’s November bean imports came in at record levels for the sixth straight month

source: FBN Insights

Record China Soy Imports

  • China imported a record 9.6 million tonnes of soybeans in November, up from 8.7 million in October and 8.3 million last year. (see Chart below)
  • The previous record was 8.68 million tonnes in 2017.
  • Bean imports through the first two months of the 2020/21 marketing year are 18.3 million tonnes, up from 14.5 million last year.
  • 2020 calendar year imports are at 92.8 million tonnes compared to 79 million last year.
  • China imported 815,000 tonnes of veg-oils in November vs 885,000 in October and 1.06 million last year.
  • 2020 calendar year to date imports of 8.59 million tonnes are just under the 8.63 million brought in last year.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: China’s November bean imports came in at record levels for the sixth straight month, and December is likely to continue that trend. USDA’s last forecast was for China to import 100 million tonnes for the year, which may be updated in the next report later this week.


France Farm Ministry Update

  • The ministry sees soft wheat planted area at 4.73 million hectares for the EU’s top wheat exporter.
  • That total area would be up 12.4% versus last year’s total thanks to improved planting conditions.
  • The latest crop conditions showed 96% of the soft wheat crop was rated good to excellent versus last year’s rating at 73%; plantings are complete.
  • Durum plantings are 91% complete versus last year’s pace at 37%.
  • Winter barley area is seen up 6.6% to 1.3 million hectares.
  • Winter barley conditions were 94% good to excellent versus last year’s crop at 74% for the same week.
  • Winter rapeseed area is estimated at 1.13 million hectares, up a modest 1% versus last year’s acreage.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: This year’s planting campaign is much improved compared with last year’s wet season. That is helping contribute to higher acreage for wheat and barley but no major change in rapeseed area. We expect acreage to be up versus last year for the EU as a whole thanks to improved prices and planting conditions. This likely will impact wheat prices the most, but spring weather will be key.

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Kevin McNew

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Marketwatch: Jan, 18

US Corn Price Idx: ZCPAUS.CM

open: 5.7667
high: 5.8486
low: 5.7266
close: 5.8288

US Soybean Price Idx: ZSPAUS.CM

open: 13.366
high: 13.376
low: 13.2328
close: 13.2696

US Hard Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: KEPAUS.CM

open: 7.3061
high: 7.3384
low: 7.2334
close: 7.2454

US Soft Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: ZWPAUS.CM

open: 7.0114
high: 7.0566
low: 6.9566
close: 7.0014