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May 25, 2021

Markets Start Mixed -- Beans Higher, Corn Lags

U.S. crop progress; Australia wheat crop expected above average

U.S. Crop Progress

  • Corn planting progress was at 90% complete compared to 80% last week and 80% average.

  • 64% of the corn crop has emerged, ahead of the average of 54%.

  • Soybean planting was up to 75% complete from 61% last week, staying well ahead of the 54% average.

  • Bean emergence was 41% versus 33% last year and 25% average.

  • Spring wheat planting is nearly finished at 94%, up from 85% last week, and the 85% average.

  • Spring wheat conditions were rated 45% good to excellent versus 80% last year, and are the second lowest initial ratings on record.

  • Oats are 96% planted versus 91% average, and sorghum is 33% planted versus 37% average.

  • Cotton planting is 49% complete compared to 38% last week, and 52% average.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: The eastern Midwest made excellent progress last week which should continue this week. The western Corn Belt is forecast to receive 2 to 4 inches of rain while the eastern region remains relatively dry and should allow for good progress. Follow-up rains in the forecast will be important for the upper Midwest which is reporting significant soil moisture shortages.


Australia Wheat Crop Expected Above Average

  • The 2021/22 wheat crop is in the final stages of planting, and widespread rains ahead of planting boosted the soil moisture.

  • This allows for potentially the second consecutive above average wheat harvest.

  • IKON has increased its production forecast to 29.5 million tonnes, which is well above average, but still below last year's record 34.8 million.

  • ABARES projected 2021/22 wheat production at 25 million tonnes in its March report, which will be updated in June.

  • There are still months until the most critical crop developmental period later this year.

  • Australia's Bureau of Meteorology forecasts an 80% chance of above normal rainfall in New South Wales and South Australia over the next three months.

  • The largest producing state of Western Australia is expected to receive average rainfall over this period.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: The current moisture levels and the outlook for the coming 2021/22 Australian grain winter crop are looking good in most areas so far and may continue to improve. Another large Australian crop would likely ease some world supply concerns, which helped boost prices to 8-year highs last month.

FBN Market Advisory services are offered by FBN BR LLC, dba FBN Brokerage, FBN BR and FBN Market Advisory (NFA ID: 0508695)

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Kevin McNew

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Marketwatch: Dec, 03

cmdty National Corn Price Idx: ZCPAUS.CM

open: 5.6309
high: 5.6797
low: 5.6159
close: 5.6309

cmdty National Soybean Price Idx: ZSPAUS.CM

open: 11.9852
high: 12.1581
low: 11.9477
close: 12.111

cmdty National Hard Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: KEPAUS.CM

open: 8.119
high: 8.2535
low: 8.054
close: 8.2002

cmdty National Soft Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: ZWPAUS.CM

open: 7.5939
high: 7.7096
low: 7.5239
close: 7.6525