Brazil Ag Attaché Report
- The USDA ag attaché in Brazil forecasts the soybean crop at 134 million tonnes, up from 128.5 million last year.
- Exports are projected to increase to 85 million tonnes from last year’s 81.7 million, with crush up 500,000 to 47 million tonnes.
- Ending stocks are forecast at 1.8 million tonnes versus 1.6 million last year.
- Brazil is expected to continue increasing soybean area to 40.0 million hectares (98.8 million acres) next year.
- The 2021/22 soy crop is projected to set another record at 141 million tonnes, with exports up to 87 million.
- The attaché projects corn production at a new record of 105 million tonnes, up from last year’s 102.0 million.
- Exports are projected at 37 million tonnes compared to 35.2 million last year.
- The forecast for corn ending stocks is at 4.2 million tonnes, down from last year’s 5.2 million.
- Continued corn area expansion is expected next year to 20 million hectares from 19.5 million this season, with a total crop of 114 million tonnes and exports 40 million.
- FBN’s Take On What It Means For The Farmer: The ag attaché forecasts are generally in line with the last USDA estimates in beans, with a lower outlook for corn. Despite record production, stocks are expected to remain relatively tight. However, continued expansion of planted area may lead to greater supplies in the following years. USDA will update forecasts tomorrow.
CONAB Sees Larger Crops
- CONAB raised its projected Brazilian soy crop to 135.5 million tonnes, up from 135.1 million in March.
- The increase comes from a slight increase in yield and planted area.
- The projection remains ahead of the last USDA forecast of 134 million tonnes.
- Brazil soy exports are expected to increase to 85.6 million tonnes due to the continued strength of China’s demand.
- The agency lifted its forecast for the total corn crop to near 109 million tonnes from 108.1 million last month, equal to the last USDA figure.
- Production increased despite a reduction in yields as the first crop was larger than expected.
- Second crop corn production was forecast at 81.6 million tonnes, marginally lower than the 82.8 million projected last month.
- The corn export projection was left unchanged at 35 million tonnes, slightly below 35.2 million last year.
- FBN’s Take On What It Means For The Farmer: While the increase in the soy crop falls within expectations, the larger corn crop is a bit of a surprise. However, there is room for yields to fall further as much of the sarinha crop will reach maturity later than normal.
FBN Market Advisory services are offered by FBN BR LLC, dba FBN Brokerage, FBN BR and FBN Market Advisory (NFA ID: 0508695)
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
This is not an offer or solicitation in any jurisdiction where we are not authorized to do business or where such offer or solicitation would be contrary to the local laws and regulations of that jurisdiction, including, but not limited to, persons residing in Australia and Canada.
