Oct 29, 2021

Russia Cuts Forecast for 2021 Grain Crop

Dry weather hampered this year’s crop

Argentina Crop Progress

  • Argentina released its weekly crop progress report Thursday showing corn planting pace proceeding slowly, only gaining 1.3 points on the week to reach 27.6% complete versus the average pace at 35.6%.

  • Soybean planting has begun, with 4.6% of the expected sowing area now in the ground; it is projected to be the lowest planted area in 15 years.

  • The wheat crop is now expected to reach 19.8 million tonnes, up from 19.2 million previously and well above last year’s crop which was hindered by dry weather.

  • Timely rains helped the wheat crop despite much of the country dealing with dry spells for months.

  • The wheat crop is now 6.7% harvested, with most of it expected to be collected in December and January. Brazil is the top destination for Argentina’s wheat exports.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: The report noted that dryness remains a concern for the wheat crop in the weeks ahead, but that rains have been adequate over much of the planted areas so far. However, if La Nina continues to reduce soil moisture, the production estimate could be downgraded in future reports.


Russia Cuts Its Forecast for 2021 Grain Crop

  • Russia will produce 123 million tonnes of grain in 2021, the Russian ag minister said Thursday.

  • The ministry had previously seen the crop at 127.4 MMT, though main analysts have been more pessimistic for months on dry weather concerns.

  • There was no separate forecast for wheat provided.

  • SovEcon sees wheat production at 75.5 MMT.

  • IKAR sees wheat production between 75-75.6 MMT.

  • USDA estimates Russia’s wheat production at 72.5 MMT.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Russia’s wheat harvest reached 93.5% complete on Tuesday. Dry weather hampered this year’s crop, and the government is reporting what most analysts already knew. While IKAR sees higher production than the USDA, it pins exports at 31.5-35 MMT versus the USDA’s 35 MMT, which is a large drop from last year’s 38 MMT. This year’s winter sowings are also behind due to dry weather.

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Marketwatch: Nov, 28

cmdty National Corn Price Idx: ZCPAUS.CM

open: 5.5712
high: 5.7406
low: 5.5262
close: 5.7276

cmdty National Soybean Price Idx: ZSPAUS.CM

open: 12.1595
high: 12.1807
low: 12.0432
close: 12.166

cmdty National Hard Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: KEPAUS.CM

open: 8.331
high: 8.4769
low: 8.226
close: 8.444

cmdty National Soft Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: ZWPAUS.CM

open: 7.7213
high: 7.8263
low: 7.6213
close: 7.7716