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May 20, 2021

Weekly Export Sales Update

New crop commitments of both corn and beans are significantly ahead of last year

Brazil to Receive Rain

  • Portions of Brazil’s safrinha corn crop have been seriously stressed by dryness over the past few weeks.

  • Rainfall during the past week was most significant across Parana and adjacent areas in the south which received 0.50 to 1.50 inches.

  • The forecast for the coming week sees rainfall across a wider area from Parana to Mato Grosso of 0.50 to 1.50 inches with pockets of up to 3.00 inches.

  • The rains will come too late to restore yield potentials in about 60% of the crop, but the remaining 40% could experience some improvement.

  • Agroconsult reduced its Brazil crop forecast to 91 million tonnes and is significantly lower than USDA at 102 million and CONAB at 106 million.

  • The firm reduced Brazil’s export forecast to 26 million tonnes from 35 million last month and below USDA’s projection of 35 million.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: If rain falls as expected, it may stabilize yields, but significant damage has been done. Production concerns in Brazil will continue to support prices as importers will need to turn to other origins to meet demand.


Weekly Export Sales

  • Corn old crop sales were 277,600 tonnes (10.9 million bushels) versus market expectations for sales of -300,000 to +400,000 tonnes.

  • Old crop sales will need to average approximately 2.6 million bushels per week to meet USDA's 2,775 million bushel forecast.

  • New crop sales were solid at 4.062 million tonnes (159.9 million bushels), thanks to sales of 3.740 million tonnes to China.

  • Old crop soybean sales were minimal at 84,200 tonnes (3.1 million bushels), as expected and in line with the 3.3 million per week needed to reach the USDA's 2,280 million bushel projection.

  • New crop sales were below expectations at 96,000 tonnes (3.5 million bushels) with the sales split between Mexico and “unknown”.

  • Wheat sales of 121,000 tonnes (4.4 million bushels) for old crop and 317.7k tonnes (11.7 million bushels) for new crop met market expectations.

  • Upland cotton sales of 108,000 running bales were up 99% from the previous week and 45% from the prior 4-week average.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: USDA’s old crop export projections assume China ships the majority of remaining old crop sales on the books, which is supported by the lack of cancellations. New crop commitments of both corn and beans are significantly ahead of last year due to China’s purchases which should continue to support prices.

FBN Market Advisory services are offered by FBN BR LLC, dba FBN Brokerage, FBN BR and FBN Market Advisory (NFA ID: 0508695)

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Kevin McNew

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Marketwatch: Dec, 03

cmdty National Corn Price Idx: ZCPAUS.CM

open: 5.6309
high: 5.6797
low: 5.6159
close: 5.6309

cmdty National Soybean Price Idx: ZSPAUS.CM

open: 11.9852
high: 12.1581
low: 11.9477
close: 12.111

cmdty National Hard Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: KEPAUS.CM

open: 8.119
high: 8.2535
low: 8.054
close: 8.2002

cmdty National Soft Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: ZWPAUS.CM

open: 7.5939
high: 7.7096
low: 7.5239
close: 7.6525