Mar 15, 2021

Brazilian Crop Conditions Move Higher

Some areas that have received recent rains have high productivity potential

Reminder to Participate in FBN’s Acreage Poll

  • To complete the acreage poll, click here.
  • Thank you to those members who already have completed the poll.
  • There are several reasons why participation is encouraged.
  • First, USDA’s March Prospective Plantings report will be one of the most closely watched reports released by USDA in years.
  • That means there could be big swings in futures values.
  • Second, Our 20,000 FBN farmers are in a unique position to share their acreage intentions for their own benefit, which is a key tenant of FBN’s mission - helping farmers; we want to use your data to benefit you.
  • Finally, results will be provided March 19 in a formal report to be emailed on March 20, several days prior to USDA’s report, giving you time to make pricing decisions.
  • The report will include guidance on any marketing strategies based on the results of the poll as well as our opinions on fundamentals.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: We encourage all members to participate. This will give FBN key insights ahead of USDA’s report on March 31, which likely will be market moving. In essence, the more participation we have the better our results will be and the better positioned you can be ahead of March 31.


Brazilian Crop Conditions

  • Second crop corn planting in Mato Grosso was reported at 88% complete, up from 73% last week and lagging the 99% average completion rate (see Chart below).
  • The balance of the crop will likely be planted as Mato Grosso is expected to receive normal rainfall over the next few weeks.
  • In Rio Grande Do Sul, corn was up to 60% harvested from 55% last week and ahead of 50% average.
  • Corn production for the state is forecast at 3.6 million tonnes down from 4 million last year.
  • Mato Grosso’s soybean harvest is 80.2% complete, up from 67% last week and compares to 97% complete last year and 88.3% average (see Chart below).
  • Soybean harvest in Rio Grande Do Sul is finally starting at 1% complete compared to 12% last year and 8% average.
  • 19% of the soy crop is mature versus 26% average and 66% is in pod fill compared to 58% average.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Soybean crop projections in Brazil have been moving higher as areas that have received recent rains have high productivity potential and would benefit from more rain. For the next few weeks, normal rainfall is forecast in the north, which should lead to better progress for soy harvest and safrinha corn planting, while the south is dry in the beginning of the week before rains return. Good weather will be needed in April and May to offset effects of late planting and will likely keep significant risk in the market.

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Kevin McNew

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Marketwatch: Jan, 18

US Corn Price Idx: ZCPAUS.CM

open: 5.7667
high: 5.8486
low: 5.7266
close: 5.8288

US Soybean Price Idx: ZSPAUS.CM

open: 13.366
high: 13.376
low: 13.2328
close: 13.2696

US Hard Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: KEPAUS.CM

open: 7.3061
high: 7.3384
low: 7.2334
close: 7.2454

US Soft Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: ZWPAUS.CM

open: 7.0114
high: 7.0566
low: 6.9566
close: 7.0014