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Aug 04, 2021

Private Crop Estimates Begin

Weather still is key for making the bean crop

Private Crop Estimates Begin

  • StoneX released their first production estimate at 14,945 million bushels compared to the USDA at 15,165 million in July.

  • The national average yield was projected at 176.9 bushels per acre with notable yield reductions in the Dakotas and Minnesota.

  • Barchart forecasts corn production at 15,000 million using a 180.3 bushel per acre yield, up from July at 176.5 bushels.

  • Our yield estimate for corn, which will be updated this week, is at 177.4 bushels per acre.

  • Barchart projects soybean production at 4,400 million bushels with a yield of 51 bushels per acre, in line with the last USDA forecast.

  • StoneX forecast the soybean crop at 4,332 million bushels, with an average yield of 50 bushels per acre.

  • We see bean yields coming in at 50.8 bushels per acre, which was lower versus our previous outlook.

  • USDA will be out August 12 with its initial survey-based forecast for US corn and soybean yields.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Despite significantly poor growing conditions in parts of the US, other areas are not in bad shape, which is helping keep yield outlooks for corn solid. For US soybeans, the balance sheet is tight with reductions to yield further squeezing the situation for 2021/22. Weather still is key for making the bean crop.


USDA Grain and Soy Crush

  • USDA reported corn used for ethanol in June at 440 million bushels, down from 448 million in May and compared to 379 million last year.

  • Implied ethanol yield was at 2.99 gallons per bushel, up from 2.92 last month and the highest of the 2020/21 season.

  • Sorghum use was reported at 600,000 bushels, up from 200,000 in May, but well below 2.3 million last year.

  • June industry soy crush was down 11.8 million from last month to 161.7 million bushels versus 177.3 million last year.

  • While this is the smallest monthly crush of the marketing year to date, it’s still the third largest crush for the month of June.

  • June meal production was 3.8 million tons, down 333,000 tons from last year.

  • Soyoil stocks were much larger than expected at 2,100 million pounds, but were still down 47 million from May.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: June corn use was slightly lower than expected, but is in line with the current USDA annual projection of 5,050 million bushels. Scheduled maintenance downtimes at soy processors were slightly larger than expected which resulted in a smaller crush. This indicates USDA’s crush projection at 2,170 million bushels could be reduced by another 5-10 million bushels in next week’s August report.

FBN Market Advisory services are offered by FBN BR LLC, dba FBN Brokerage, FBN BR and FBN Market Advisory (NFA ID: 0508695)

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Kevin McNew

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Marketwatch: Dec, 03

cmdty National Corn Price Idx: ZCPAUS.CM

open: 5.6309
high: 5.6797
low: 5.6159
close: 5.6309

cmdty National Soybean Price Idx: ZSPAUS.CM

open: 11.9852
high: 12.1581
low: 11.9477
close: 12.111

cmdty National Hard Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: KEPAUS.CM

open: 8.119
high: 8.2535
low: 8.054
close: 8.2002

cmdty National Soft Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: ZWPAUS.CM

open: 7.5939
high: 7.7096
low: 7.5239
close: 7.6525