Overview of USDA’s Ag Forum Numbers
- US corn acres were projected at 92 million acres, which would be up from 2020’s plantings at 90.8 million and the highest plantings since 2016.
- The average farm price for 2021/22 was forecast at $4.20, down from $4.30 in 2020/21.
- 2021/22 corn ending stocks were projected at 1,552 million bushels up from the current 2020/21 projection of 1,502 million.
- USDA projected soybean acres at 90 million, which would be the second largest area in history for the US, falling shy only of 90.1 million in 2017.
- The combined acreage for corn and beans would be the largest on record.
- The average farm price for 2021/22 was forecast at $11.25 compared to 11.15 for 2020/21.
- Soybean carryover is forecast to remain tight in 2021/22 at 145 million bushels, though slightly more than the 120 million forecast this year.
- All wheat plantings were projected at 45 million acres, up slightly from 44.3 million in 2020, but generally falling in line with the downward trajectory.
- Winter wheat seeded area was estimated at 32 million acres in January implying that USDA sees a drop in spring wheat + durum area in 2021.
FBN’s Take On What It Means: The market will probably quickly digest the numbers with attention reverting back to the current situation of tightening supplies and strong demand. It would not be a surprise to have higher acres in the US and other countries in the coming planting season thanks to prices. Corn is the crop where we could potentially see the greatest market shock if those acres come in much higher than currently expected.
Argentina Crop Conditions Mixed
- Corn crop conditions were reported 24% Good to excellent, up from 23% last week, but still well below 61% last year.
- The production forecast was unchanged at 46 million tonnes which is below USDA’s last forecast at 47.5 million and under last year’s 51.5 million.
- Soybean crop conditions declined to 19% good to excellent from 23% last week and compared to 66% last year.
- 80% of the soy crop is flowering versus 85% average, 44% is forming pods versus 61% average, and 10% has reached pod fill versus 30% average.
- Soil moisture conditions continued to deteriorate slightly with 79% optimum to favorable compared to 85% last week.
- Buenos Aires Grain Exchange kept its crop projection steady at 46 million tonnes, below the 48 million projected by the USDA.
FBN’s Take On What It Means: BAGE reported corn conditions slightly higher as the western region received rainfall and temps have remained moderate. However, rains were lighter in the east and soybean crop progress remains behind. Forecasts are drier for the next few weeks with warmer temps which will likely stress crop conditions further.
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