Nov 10, 2021

USDA November WASDE Reports Recap

Report provided surprise for U.S. bean yield, cutting it by 0.3 bushel/acre

USDA November Reports Recap

  • The WASDE report provided a surprise for the US bean yield, cutting it by 0.3 bushel per acre to 51.2 bpa; the trade had expected 51.5 to 52.5 bpa.

  • However, the yield trim was more than offset by a lowering of the export outlook, resulting in a boost to ending stocks.

  • The USDA also trimmed Argentina’s bean forecast and cut one million tonnes off Chinese imports.

  • The US corn yield at 177 bpa hit pretty close to expectations, which was offset by a 50 million bushel increase for ethanol.

  • US corn ending stocks are seen near 1.5 billion bushels.

  • For wheat, US exports were trimmed but further cuts are likely.

  • USDA added to Russia, Ukraine, EU, and India wheat export forecasts.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: The yield cut to beans pushed Jan 22 futures to a more than 52 cent gain, but they would finish up 24 cents for the day as the trade returned some focus to demand and South America supply potential. Corn finished marginally higher on increased use for ethanol. Wheat futures also finished higher as the report underscored strong global demand.


USDA Ottawa Post Releases Attaché Report on Canadian Wheat

  • The USDA Ottawa post confirmed Canadian wheat production falling off sharply for 2021/22, from 35.3 million tonnes last year to a light 21.7 million (USDA official numbers are at 21 MMT).

  • Exports for 2020/21 were exceptionally strong at 26.4 MMT, with expectations for 2021/22 at 15.7 MMT (official is 15 MMT).

  • Wheat exports to China climbed 84% between the 19/20 and 20/21 marketing years, and China remains a key destination of high protein wheat.

  • While the pace slowed starting in July, the post expects exports to pick up in the first quarter of 2022 as supplies of high-protein wheat in other producing countries dwindle.

  • The fall in wheat production is also impacting livestock feed supplies, though a significant amount of US corn is set to arrive this fall. Canada has about one million tonnes of US corn on the books, but more is expected.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: As the 2021 growing season was one of the hottest and driest on record, Canada had a steep dropoff in wheat production - as well as other grains - negatively impacting its export programs and livestock feed supplies. This is keeping support in domestic and global markets, especially for high protein wheat, barley, and durum.

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Kevin McNew

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Marketwatch: Nov, 28

cmdty National Corn Price Idx: ZCPAUS.CM

open: 5.5712
high: 5.7406
low: 5.5262
close: 5.7276

cmdty National Soybean Price Idx: ZSPAUS.CM

open: 12.1595
high: 12.1807
low: 12.0432
close: 12.166

cmdty National Hard Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: KEPAUS.CM

open: 8.331
high: 8.4769
low: 8.226
close: 8.444

cmdty National Soft Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: ZWPAUS.CM

open: 7.7213
high: 7.8263
low: 7.6213
close: 7.7716