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Jul 16, 2021

Prairies to Heat Up Again

Weather conditions will worsen over next 10-14 days with more heat and dryness expected

Canadian Prairies to Heat Up Again

  • Weather conditions have been very stressful for a huge portion of Canada’s Prairies and a part of the US northern Plains in recent weeks.

  • Weather conditions in these areas are forecast to worsen over the next 10-14 days with more heat and dryness expected.

  • The return of hotter temperatures with no more than sporadic light showers will likely result in further production cuts for all crops.

  • Southwestern Alberta and in a few locations in far southwestern Saskatchewan did receive some beneficial moisture earlier this month.

  • For many of those areas this past week was drier biased once again and now the heat is about to be turned on again which will accelerate the drying rate and raise crop stress.

  • Most areas had short to very short top and subsoil moisture, as only the areas reporting more than an inch of rain recently had soil moisture that was rated marginally adequate.

  • The bulk of Alberta, Saskatchewan and a growing percentage of Manitoba have already dried out enough to cut production and further declines are expected.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Crop stress from heat and dryness affecting the Canadian Prairies is also forecast for Montana and North Dakota. Soil moisture in South Dakota, southern Minnesota, parts of eastern Nebraska and Iowa will start off better than the northern Plains, but the forecast heat and dryness will likely have some impact on these areas as well. The market is adding risk premium as this may partially offset good conditions across the rest of the Corn Belt.


Argentine Exchange Boosts Grain Outlook

  • Wheat planting progress is 96% complete for the exporter with 24% of the crop tilling.

  • While it’s early in the season, the Rosario exchange boosted the crop forecast by 500,000 tonnes to 20.5 million.

  • It added 100,000 hectares to the planted area, which is now seen at 6.8 million hectares (16.8 million acres).

  • The crop rated in good to excellent condition is 59% versus 57% the previous week and 22% last year.

  • The corn crop was raised 500,000 tonnes to 51 million, and harvest is 63% complete.

  • Next year, the exchange sees potentially record corn production with a placeholder of 54 million tonnes currently penciled in.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: The winter wheat season is off to a great start for Argentina but harvest is months away. Higher acreage is not surprising given the price environment. The higher corn crop could be surprising given the dryness that was a feature for much of the growing season. But an additional 500,000 tonnes is not enough to alter the fundamental situation we are facing.

FBN Market Advisory services are offered by FBN BR LLC, dba FBN Brokerage, FBN BR and FBN Market Advisory (NFA ID: 0508695)

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

This is not an offer or solicitation in any jurisdiction where we are not authorized to do business or where such offer or solicitation would be contrary to the local laws and regulations of that jurisdiction, including, but not limited to, persons residing in Australia and Canada.

Kevin McNew

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Marketwatch: Dec, 04

cmdty National Corn Price Idx: ZCPAUS.CM

open: 5.6684
high: 5.7321
low: 5.6559
close: 5.7046

cmdty National Soybean Price Idx: ZSPAUS.CM

open: 12.266
high: 12.366
low: 12.2585
close: 12.34

cmdty National Hard Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: KEPAUS.CM

open: 8.1277
high: 8.243
low: 7.9921
close: 8.0144

cmdty National Soft Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: ZWPAUS.CM

open: 7.6225
high: 7.7249
low: 7.4749
close: 7.5391