Nov 04, 2021

Grain Export Sales See Strong Jumps

Brazil’s soybean exports undercut U.S.

Trade Estimates for November’s WASDE

  • Reuters released their survey of analyst estimates of USDA’s November WASDE report.

  • The average yield for corn is seen at 176.9 bushels per acre, with the range between 175.9 and 178 bpa.

  • Total corn production is expected at 15,050 million bushels, ranging between 14,957 and 15,148 million.

  • For beans, yield is seen at 51.9 bushels per acre, with estimates between 51.5 and 52.5 bpa.

  • Total bean production is expected at 4,484 million bushels, ranging between 4,442 and 4,536 million.

  • For ending stocks, the trade sees corn at 1,480 million bushels, soybeans at 362 million, and wheat at 581 million.

  • Specifically, commodity brokerage StoneX raised its corn yield to 177.7 bpa from 176.6 and beans to 51.9 from 51.3.

  • They also upped corn production to 15,119 million bushels and beans to 4,490 million.

  • Analytics firm IHS sees corn yield at 178.7 bpa and production at 15,204 million bushels; it sees bean yield at 51.5 bpa and production at 4,454 million.

  • FBN’s yields currently stand at 177.9 bpa for corn and 52.4 bpa for beans.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: In September’s report, the USDA raised corn yields from 176.3 to 176.5 bpa and beans to 51.5 from 50.6 bpa. FBN will release their final estimates later this week. The USDA will release the November WASDE next Tuesday, November 9.


Brazil’s Soybean Exports Undercut U.S.

  • In an unusual move for this time of year, Brazilian soybeans have become more competitive in China than beans out of the US.

  • While FOB premiums fell for both origins over the week, Brazilian beans were about $10 per tonne cheaper than those from the US.

  • There’s selling pressure in Brazil currently, with harvest expected ahead of schedule and producers wanting to clear out old crop supplies as soon as possible.

  • With cheaper beans out of Brazil, it’s possible the USDA will lower its US 2021/22 export estimates in the upcoming WASDE.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: From August to December, US beans tend to be more competitive than those from Brazil on freshly harvested supplies. However with FOB prices falling more than those in the US and a depreciating Brazilian real, the situation is currently switched. Corn is also seeing a similar dynamic. If the US is to hit the USDA’s current export estimate, the average shipping rate needs to be about 100,000 tonnes per week higher than last year’s rate.

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Kevin McNew

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Marketwatch: Nov, 28

cmdty National Corn Price Idx: ZCPAUS.CM

open: 5.5712
high: 5.7406
low: 5.5262
close: 5.7276

cmdty National Soybean Price Idx: ZSPAUS.CM

open: 12.1595
high: 12.1807
low: 12.0432
close: 12.166

cmdty National Hard Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: KEPAUS.CM

open: 8.331
high: 8.4769
low: 8.226
close: 8.444

cmdty National Soft Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: ZWPAUS.CM

open: 7.7213
high: 7.8263
low: 7.6213
close: 7.7716