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May 04, 2021

U.S. Crop Progress Update

U.S. growing season is off to a good start, though some areas are drier than normal

U.S. Crop Progress Update

  • Corn planting was 46% complete, slightly behind 48% last year but ahead of the average at 36%.

  • Soybean planting jumped to 24% complete from 8% last week, and is ahead of the average pace of 11%.

  • Dry conditions allowed huge planting progress from Iowa and Minnesota into Illinois.

  • National winter wheat crop ratings were down a tic at 48% good to excellent from 49% last week.

  • 27% of the nation’s crop was in the heading stage compared to 17% last week and 34% average.

  • Spring wheat planting reached 49% complete, up from 27% last year and ahead of 32% average.

  • Cotton planting was right on pace at 16% complete versus 17% last year and 16% average.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: So far the US growing season is off to a good start, though some areas are drier than normal. Scattered rainfall and below normal temperatures are forecast across the Corn Belt this week, and while planting could slow a bit, we expect progress will remain well ahead of average.

FBN
FBN

USDA Grain and Soy Crush Reports

  • USDA reported corn used for ethanol in March at 420 million bushels, up from 333 million in the prior month and 412 million last year.

  • Ethanol yield was implied at 2.95 gallons per bushel which is up from 2.89 previously and above the marketing year to date average 2.90 gallons.

  • Mar industry soy crush was 188.2 million bushels, up from the weather depressed level of 164.3 million in February.

  • but down 4 mbu from LY’s monthly record.

  • Cumulative industry crush for 2020/21 is a record 1,301 million bushels, up from 1,265 million last year.

  • Mar meal production recovered to nearly 4.5 million tons, just 41,000 tons lower than last year.

  • Bean oil stocks at the end of March were lower than expected at 2.245 billion pounds, down from 2.306 billion in February.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Corn usage for ethanol is on pace to meet or possibly slightly exceed the most recent USDA forecast. In general US soybeans are very tight for old crop and the lack of available supplies may cause the USDA to lower its projected crush in next week’s May report. We expect tight stocks to continue to support both bean and corn prices.

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Kevin McNew

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Magazine

Marketwatch: Dec, 03

cmdty National Corn Price Idx: ZCPAUS.CM

open: 5.6309
high: 5.6797
low: 5.6159
close: 5.6309

cmdty National Soybean Price Idx: ZSPAUS.CM

open: 11.9852
high: 12.1581
low: 11.9477
close: 12.111

cmdty National Hard Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: KEPAUS.CM

open: 8.119
high: 8.2535
low: 8.054
close: 8.2002

cmdty National Soft Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: ZWPAUS.CM

open: 7.5939
high: 7.7096
low: 7.5239
close: 7.6525