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May 26, 2021

Favorable US Weather Limits New Crop Prices

Paraná crop conditions stable; EU crop monitor raises winter crop yields

Paraná Crop Conditions Stable

  • DERAL reported Paraná crop conditions at 69% good to average unchanged from last week and below 84% last year.

  • 13% of the safrinha crop was still in the development stage down from 24% last week.

  • 6% of the crop has matured, up from 3% last week, while 51% was flowering, and 29% was grain filling.

  • DERAL last estimated the second corn crop at 12.2 million tonnes, compared to private estimates of 8-10 million and 12 million last year.

  • Rain was reported earlier in May in Parana some improvement in crop conditions did result briefly.

  • Additional rain is expected in this coming week that will further bolster soil moisture and improve late season crop conditions.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: The coming week of rain will further raise soil moisture and improve crop conditions, but the lateness of the season is going to limit the benefit. Considering the smaller crop, Brazil will likely import more corn than usual this year, and not export as much. This could create more demand for US supplies into the summer months.


EU Crop Monitor Raises Winter Crop Yields

  • MARS, the EU crop monitoring unit, raised yields marginally for winter grains in its latest report.

  • Winter wheat, barley, and rapeseed yields all were raised versus previous outlooks despite the concerns for the cold snap earlier this year.

  • Soft wheat yields are seen averaging 5.9 tonnes per hectare, which would be 3.6% above last year and 3.9% above the average.

  • Barley yields were raised marginally to 4.89 tonnes per hectare, which would be 2.5% above the average.

  • Rapeseed yields were boosted marginally as well versus the April forecast and are seen at 3.21 tonnes per hectare.

  • Cold weather hampered flowering rapeseed stands but no major impacts so far are yet reported for yields. In some parts of the EU, such as Poland, the crop was not yet flowering when the cold snaps occurred.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: The yield report showed no major changes versus April but the key take away is that yields did not diminish in the latest month for the EU. Across the board, yields are set to be above average for grains. This will raise competition, especially on the wheat export front.

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Kevin McNew

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Marketwatch: Dec, 04

cmdty National Corn Price Idx: ZCPAUS.CM

open: 5.6684
high: 5.7321
low: 5.6559
close: 5.7046

cmdty National Soybean Price Idx: ZSPAUS.CM

open: 12.266
high: 12.366
low: 12.2585
close: 12.34

cmdty National Hard Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: KEPAUS.CM

open: 8.1277
high: 8.243
low: 7.9921
close: 8.0144

cmdty National Soft Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: ZWPAUS.CM

open: 7.6225
high: 7.7249
low: 7.4749
close: 7.5391