Apr 14, 2021

Drier Weather Forecasts Support Board Prices

Brazil crop update; increased soy crush expectedBrazil crop update; increased soy crush expected

Brazil Crop Update

  • Brazilian soybean harvest is 83% complete which is slightly ahead of the 81% average, but is still behind last year.

  • In Mato Grosso, Parana, MGDS, and Goias bean harvesting is done at 98%-99% complete.

  • Further south in Rio Grande Do Sul, harvest is still lagging at 40% versus 55% average.

  • Mato Grosso farmer selling of the current bean harvest increased to 79% compared to 82% last year, and new crop is 25% sold versus 30% last year.

  • Brazil’s first crop corn harvest is 72% complete, right in line with last year and ahead of the average 71%.

  • Producers in Mato Grosso have sold 72% of the safrinha crop compared to 77% last year.

  • Although selling is ahead of 61% average, marketing has slowed over the last month as producers wait to confirm final production.

  • IMEA reduced its estimate for corn production in Mato Grosso by 3.6%, from 36.3 million tonnes to 35 million due to 40% of the crop being planted outside the window considered ideal for the state.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Soybean harvest has mostly caught up and is supplying record shipments to China. There continues to be concern about second crop corn production, which is increasing due to the drier weather forecast. Though USDA left its last forecast unchanged, others are beginning to lower projected supplies. If production in Brazil is reduced, it would further tighten world stocks and support prices.


Increased Soy Crush Expected

  • The monthly National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) report is scheduled for release at 11 a.m. CDT on Thursday.

  • NOPA members are forecast to have crushed 179.2 million bushels of soybeans in March.

  • Volume would be up significantly from a 17-month low in February of just 155.2 million bushels.

  • Soy crush is expected to rebound from shutdowns caused by freezing weather in February.

  • High bean oil prices supported profitable processing margins, and encouraged crushers to accelerate operations.

  • The average forecast for end of March bean oil stocks is 1.822 billion pounds versus 1.757 billion pounds the prior month and 1.899 billion last year.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: The crush rate likely jumped in March though tightening soybean supplies were limiting, and some processors may have struggled to rebound from the February slowdown. The strong demand for vegetable oils to make biofuel is expected to continue competing with food use and help support soybean values.

FBN Market Advisory services are offered by FBN BR LLC, dba FBN Brokerage, FBN BR and FBN Market Advisory (NFA ID: 0508695)

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Kevin McNew

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Marketwatch: Jan, 18

US Corn Price Idx: ZCPAUS.CM

open: 5.7667
high: 5.8486
low: 5.7266
close: 5.8288

US Soybean Price Idx: ZSPAUS.CM

open: 13.366
high: 13.376
low: 13.2328
close: 13.2696

US Hard Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: KEPAUS.CM

open: 7.3061
high: 7.3384
low: 7.2334
close: 7.2454

US Soft Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: ZWPAUS.CM

open: 7.0114
high: 7.0566
low: 6.9566
close: 7.0014