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May 07, 2021

Corn, Beans Continue Surging to New Highs

Argentine crop progress; Canada stocks report

Argentina Crop Progress

  • Corn harvest progress is at 23% complete versus 20% last week, and behind 38% last year.

  • Condition ratings have improved to 44% good to excellent from 41% last week and above 36% last year.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange maintained its corn production forecast at 46 million tonnes, compared to the USDA’s 47 million.

  • Soy harvest pace has increased and is up to 53.3% complete from 32.9% last week, but remains behind the average of 66%.

  • Bean crop conditions improved slightly with good to excellent ratings steady at 9% versus 11% last year, and average up 2 points to 63% compared to 52% last year.

  • BAGE left the soy crop projection unchanged at 43 million tonnes, yields in parts of Cordoba are coming in better than expected.

  • The USDA at 47.5 million tonnes, Rosario Grain Exchange at 45 million and the attache at 45 million.

  • The exchange forecast Argentina’s wheat crop at 19 million tonnes, up from 17 million this season, expecting normal yields and unchanged planted area.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: The recent weather in Argentina has featured more rainfall and crops continue to improve. Corn harvest has been slow as producers are focused on beans which have been lagging. The weather forecast appears to allow for active harvest to continue through the weekend. There is potential for BAGE to increase its bean crop estimate if yields continue to be better than expected.

FBN

Statistics Canada March 31 Stocks Report

  • All wheat stocks totaled 16.2 million tonnes, which was about 500,000 tonnes lighter than trade expectations and 2.6 million tonnes lighter than last year.

  • Durum stocks fell to 2.75 million tonnes versus 3.3 million last year.

  • Canola stocks were snug at 6.6 million tonnes, down four million tonnes from last year but near the trade expectation.

  • Barley stocks came in at 2.8 million tonnes, down from 3.5 million a year ago and 500,000 tonnes lighter than trade expectations.

  • Lentil stocks fell about 300,000 tonnes to 1.4 million while pea stocks were unchanged versus last year at 1.9 million tonnes.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: The main takeaway is that stocks were lighter on March 31, 2021 versus March 31, 2020. The report offered no major surprises. But, we cannot continue at this pace of use for the rest of the crop year, especially on the export side. Canada’s crop year starts August 1 for most crops meaning that the stocks totals printed as of March 31 have to last another four months, which is not feasible without a change in behavior from the previous eight months. For the US spring wheat grower, the report is supportive and points to no change in our view in that spring wheat prices will be elevated this year.

FBN Market Advisory services are offered by FBN BR LLC, dba FBN Brokerage, FBN BR and FBN Market Advisory (NFA ID: 0508695)

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Kevin McNew

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Magazine

Marketwatch: Dec, 03

cmdty National Corn Price Idx: ZCPAUS.CM

open: 5.6309
high: 5.6797
low: 5.6159
close: 5.6309

cmdty National Soybean Price Idx: ZSPAUS.CM

open: 11.9852
high: 12.1581
low: 11.9477
close: 12.111

cmdty National Hard Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: KEPAUS.CM

open: 8.119
high: 8.2535
low: 8.054
close: 8.2002

cmdty National Soft Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: ZWPAUS.CM

open: 7.5939
high: 7.7096
low: 7.5239
close: 7.6525