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Aug 06, 2021

Ag Prices Higher Waiting to Confirm Weekend Rains

Argentina Crops and Logistics

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported harvest progress at 89% complete compared to 83% last week and 76% last year.

  • Corn yields continue higher than expected, but the corn crop forecast was unchanged at 48 million tonnes compared to the USDA at 48.5 million.

  • Wheat conditions were down to 48% good to excellent from 55% and 9% poor/very poor compared to 6% the week prior.

  • BAGE kept its wheat crop forecast steady at 19 million tonnes compared to the last USDA projection of 20.5 million tonnes.

  • Unusually low water levels of the Parana River at the Rosario port has cut the amount of cargo that can be loaded onto each ship by 25%.

  • More ships are being topped off in the deeper Atlantic port of Bahia Blanca.

  • Grain arrivals were halted for the last week by a truckers' strike at the port of Bahia Blanca, but have resumed as the strike was suspended.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Harvest pace could slow over the next two weeks as the weather forecast in Argentina turns more active with rainfall of 1-2” expected this week. However, the rain is not expected to increase river levels significantly. The increased logistical costs pumping up prices that exporters pay, along with the threat of a resumption of the truck strike may see some business move to the US.


Brazil Corn Crop Projections Continue to Decline

  • AgRural reported drought followed by frost caused safrinha corn yields in the center-south of Brazil to decrease to the lowest level in ten years.

  • Production is forecast at 51.6 million tonnes, down from the 70.5 million last year.

  • Previously, AgRural had projected the second corn crop would total 54.6 million tonnes.

  • StoneX reported its safrinha estimate at 60 million tonnes versus 61 million last month.

  • Recent cold and wet weather has also limited the harvesting pace to 49% complete, below the 61% seen last year.

  • Safrinha corn is Brazil's main corn crop and accounts for 70%-75% of total production on average.

  • Brazil's shipping lineup for corn exports was 2.8 million tonnes, steady with last week but down from 6 million last year.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Eventually, the demand picture for the US will improve as Brazil’s exportable stocks continue to decrease. New crop corn export sales last week were more than expected as Mexico, Japan, and Unknown stepped up purchases here. We expect exports will continue to increase post harvest and help support prices.

FBN Market Advisory services are offered by FBN BR LLC, dba FBN Brokerage, FBN BR and FBN Market Advisory (NFA ID: 0508695)

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Kevin McNew

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Marketwatch: Dec, 03

cmdty National Corn Price Idx: ZCPAUS.CM

open: 5.6309
high: 5.6797
low: 5.6159
close: 5.6309

cmdty National Soybean Price Idx: ZSPAUS.CM

open: 11.9852
high: 12.1581
low: 11.9477
close: 12.111

cmdty National Hard Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: KEPAUS.CM

open: 8.119
high: 8.2535
low: 8.054
close: 8.2002

cmdty National Soft Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: ZWPAUS.CM

open: 7.5939
high: 7.7096
low: 7.5239
close: 7.6525