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Jun 04, 2021

Ag Prices Higher as Forecast Turns More Threatening

Weekly US Export Sales

  • Corn old crop sales were 531,100 tonnes (20.9 million bushels) well above market expectations.

  • Old crop total commitments are now at 2,721 million bushels vs the USDA's 2,775 billion bushel export projection.

  • New crop sales were solid at 439,500 tonnes (17.3 million bushels), with fewer sales to China.

  • Old crop soybean sales were minimal at 17,800 tonnes (0.7 million bushels), but still on pace to reach the USDA's 2,280 million bushel projection.

  • Total commitments of 2.261 billion bushels remain up 46% from last year's 1.549 billion.

  • New crop soybean sales were 180,300 tonnes (6.6 million bushels), and total sales of 274 million bushels remain significantly ahead of last year's 86 million.

  • Wheat sales of -33,300 tonnes (-1.2 million bushels) for old crop and 398,300 tonnes (14.6 million bushels) for new crop met market expectations.

  • Upland cotton sales of 180,800 running bales were up 6% from the previous week and 82% above the prior 4-week average.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: We expect old crop exports to reach the USDA's current projections and possibly exceed them as China ships the majority of its purchases. New crop commitments of both corn and beans are significantly ahead of last year due to China’s purchases which should continue to support prices.


Argentina Crop Update

  • The Buenos Aires Exchange reported that yields in Argentina for corn are better than expected.

  • The latest weekly crop report showed that 34% of the corn crop had been collected as of June 2.

  • The exchange stated that late-corn yields also were exceeding expectations but held the forecast at 46 million tonnes.

  • Soybean harvest is nearly complete with production held at 43.5 million tonnes.

  • Wheat plantings are progressing at 17% but are behind last year at 30% and slightly below the average at 21%.

  • Wheat planted area is forecast at 6.5 million hectares, also unchanged.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Even if Argentina’s corn crop was slightly raised, it would not be enough to offset the losses in Brazil, where dry weather has hampered production prospects. USDA will issue production updates next week and the market will be eyeing South American production.

FBN Market Advisory services are offered by FBN BR LLC, dba FBN Brokerage, FBN BR and FBN Market Advisory (NFA ID: 0508695)

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Kevin McNew

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Marketwatch: Dec, 04

cmdty National Corn Price Idx: ZCPAUS.CM

open: 5.6684
high: 5.7321
low: 5.6559
close: 5.7046

cmdty National Soybean Price Idx: ZSPAUS.CM

open: 12.266
high: 12.366
low: 12.2585
close: 12.34

cmdty National Hard Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: KEPAUS.CM

open: 8.1277
high: 8.243
low: 7.9921
close: 8.0144

cmdty National Soft Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: ZWPAUS.CM

open: 7.6225
high: 7.7249
low: 7.4749
close: 7.5391