Apr 07, 2021

Ag Prices Firm Ahead Of USDA Reports Due Friday

The trade looks for smaller US corn stocks with the average estimate at 1,396 million bushels

Trade Expectations for April WASDE Report

  • USDA’s monthly report is due to be released Friday, April 9.
  • The trade looks for smaller US corn stocks with the average estimate at 1,396 million bushels versus 1,502 million in March likely on higher exports.
  • US soybean stocks are seen at 119 million bushels, essentially unchanged versus a month ago.
  • US wheat stocks are expected at 847 million bushels, up 11 million from the March forecast likely on lighter feed use and/or lower exports.
  • Global stocks for corn are forecast to fall around three million tonnes.
  • For Brazil+Argentina, the trade looks for trims to both corn and soybean production in the upcoming report.
  • Corn production is expected at 155 million tonnes, down 1.5 million in March; bean production is seen at 180.6 million tonnes, down from 181.5 million.

FBN’s Take On What It Means For The Farmer: The USDA data will hit the market at 11am CT on Friday. The trade likely has priced in smaller corn supplies for the US already with any surprises being if USDA added to US corn stocks. The agency will incorporate its March 31 stocks totals but balance sheets for the 2021/22 crop year will not be released until May. Friday’s reports are not expected to be extremely market moving.


Brazil Crop Expectations Mixed

  • Agroconsult is projecting Brazil will produce a record soybean crop despite weather-related challenges throughout the 2020/21 season,
  • The consultant forecasts soy up 8.5% to 137.1 million tonnes and sees exports at 85 million tonnes.
  • Second crop corn (safrinha) yields are projected to fall by 3.6% from last year due to late planting after soybean harvest delays.
  • In Mato Grosso, it’s estimated 38% of the second crop corn was planted after the ideal window.
  • Matto Grosso Do Sul and Parana, which produce almost 30% of the safrinha crop have received less than 10% of average rainfall over the last month.
  • However, Agroconsult forecasts second crop corn output will increase to 78.3 million tonnes from 75 million due to a 7.3% increase in planted area.
  • CONAB is set to release its next forecast Thursday, April 8, updating last month's forecast of 82.8 million tonnes.

FBN’s Take On What It Means For The Farmer: Although weather forecasts call for slightly better rainfall next week, production estimates have already started to decline. High prices have encouraged producers to plant corn later and over a larger area, but a much larger portion of the safrinha crop will be at risk of maturing into Brazil’s dry season. This increased risk is likely to support prices until there is more confidence in production levels.

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Kevin McNew

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Marketwatch: Jan, 18

US Corn Price Idx: ZCPAUS.CM

open: 5.7667
high: 5.8486
low: 5.7266
close: 5.8288

US Soybean Price Idx: ZSPAUS.CM

open: 13.366
high: 13.376
low: 13.2328
close: 13.2696

US Hard Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: KEPAUS.CM

open: 7.3061
high: 7.3384
low: 7.2334
close: 7.2454

US Soft Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: ZWPAUS.CM

open: 7.0114
high: 7.0566
low: 6.9566
close: 7.0014