Mar 31, 2021

Trade Expectations for Today’s USDA Reports

Stocks report is expected to confirm overall tight situation for big three commodities

Reminder of Trade Expectations for Today’s USDA Reports

  • These average estimates are from a Reuters poll.
  • Corn acres are seen at 93.2 million acres; 2020 plantings were 90.8 million.
  • Soybean acres are expected at 90 million versus 83.1 million in 2020.
  • The trade historically overshoots soybean acres in the intentions report.
  • All wheat acres are seen at 45 million up from 44.3 million last year mainly on higher winter wheat area but lower spring wheat.
  • Cotton planted area is expected at 11.9 million acres versus 12.1 million last year, while the FBN survey figure was higher at 12.7 million acres.
  • March 1 stocks are expected to be lower versus last year for the big three commodities.
  • Corn stocks are seen at 7,767 million bushels versus 7,952 million in 2020.
  • Soybean supplies are expected at 1,534 million bushels, down substantially from last year’s level at 2,255 million and the lowest total in years.
  • Wheat stocks are seen coming in at 1,272 million bushels, down from 1,415 million and also the lowest volume in several crop years.

FBN’s Take On What It Means Markets have been under pressure ahead of the reports. The stocks report is expected to confirm an overall tight situation for the big three commodities while in general, planted area intentions are expected to be up versus last year for many crops. The numbers to watch will be corn and soybeans. FBN’s soybean acreage forecast for the US came in well below 90 million acres


Ukraine May Reduce Corn Planting

  • A survey by consultancy APK-Inform revealed 18% of Ukrainian farmers plan to reduce the planted area for corn, while 13% could increase area.
  • The survey showed that the 2021 total planted area for corn could fall by 14% versus last year.
  • Severe drought in 2020 reduced Ukraine's corn harvest by at least 5 million tonnes.
  • Corn is Ukraine's leading grain export and the country is forecast to supply 24 million tonnes of corn in the 2020/21 season.
  • The economy ministry has projected the area planted for corn could total 5.3 million hectares this year compared with 5.4 million hectares last year.
  • The government has estimated the 2020 corn harvest at 30.3 million tonnes, and forecasts production to reach 33.2 million tonnes this year.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: The government's projection is more optimistic than the consultants, and the situation could change later this spring depending on the weather. Higher prices will also likely encourage farmers to plant more crops. Early planting has been held up by lower than normal temperatures. If the major exporter plants a smaller area, it will put more pressure on the US to have a good harvest and could support prices.

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Kevin McNew

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Marketwatch: Jan, 18

US Corn Price Idx: ZCPAUS.CM

open: 5.7667
high: 5.8486
low: 5.7266
close: 5.8288

US Soybean Price Idx: ZSPAUS.CM

open: 13.366
high: 13.376
low: 13.2328
close: 13.2696

US Hard Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: KEPAUS.CM

open: 7.3061
high: 7.3384
low: 7.2334
close: 7.2454

US Soft Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: ZWPAUS.CM

open: 7.0114
high: 7.0566
low: 6.9566
close: 7.0014