Feed&Grain.com |

Symptoms of the food-versus-fuel crisis are appearing regularly in the news but the underlying causes--and long-term implications--are poorly understood, said a University of Illinois agricultural economics professor.

"An important component of the food-versus-fuel debate that is not well understood is how increases in wealth for Asian consumers are dramatically affecting the markets for commodities worldwide," said Peter Goldsmith, director of the National Soybean Research Laboratory and an associate professor in the U of I’s Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.

To help fill that knowledge gap, Goldsmith, Tad Masuda, a postdoctoral researcher, and Barbara Mirel of the University of Michigan have built a 3-D computer model that visually conveys the interrelationship and impacts of income changes around the world on consumption, production, and markets.

"Global Food in 3-D--Version 2" is a Web-based program that will be accessible on a trial basis worldwide to analysts and other interested parties by June.

"It will put the story of food demand at everyone’s fingertips," Goldsmith said.

The program deploys three interactive features on the screen--a sidewall, a back wall, and a floor.

On the "side wall," users can graphically display consumption and production data for 15 protein commodities. These can be displayed by country, region, or for the world.

"In the global food system, the production and consumption of commodities are increasingly separate," Goldsmith said. "For example, poultry and pork trade has increased 14 percent to 16 percent per year since 2000, respectively. Brazil is now the largest exporter with Russia and China being the leading importers. The shift in the loci of world poultry and pork production will have larger impacts on underlying feed markets and grain flows."