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2. “Wheels”: the maximum number of trucks, railcars or barges you can secure and at what cost.

3. Destination limitations: Also consider the receiving capacity at your destination. For example, you may be able to load out 15,000 bushels/day, but your destination market is typically only open four days/week. That will reduce your shipping capacity unless you have trucks and drivers that will wait overnight to unload. Some destinations allocate truck quotas per day to shippers to avoid such congestion and limit receipts.

4. “Just in case” – It’s wise to include a shipping ‘fudge factor’ – the slowdowns that are inevitable when legs break down or the weather won’t cooperate.

Shipping capacity has nothing to do with the volume of grain you sell; it’s a measure of the physical limits of your operation. (note: Some elevators also run direct farm to terminal positions which also require logistics planning.) To ignore logistics and transportation is to risk a bottleneck that someday will cost you money.

MAKE IT ROUTINE

Regularly running a logistics worksheet will help you better merchandise your firm’s grain. You’ll be less likely to be unexpectedly forced to sell into a weak basis if you’ve planned ahead based not just on basis goals, but on shipping needs and constraints as well as cost of transportation at varying times.

Getting sales booked early at good levels, rather than at the best possible levels, is sometimes the best approach. That may increase your flexibility, maximize your shipping capacity, and let you keep shipping when others may be forced to sit idle, trying to outwait the inevitable basis sell-offs.

Use your logistics worksheet for preliminary harvest planning as well. Write down your bin space, subtract projected beginning inventory, and you’ll have a rough idea of how much grain you can receive without having to ship. Then add in your total shipping capacity and you can determine the maximum volume your operation can handle in any given time frame.

This simple example shows you can receive 700,000 bushels of grain during October/November as long as you are also shipping at capacity. If you think your volume projections are realistic, you know right now that you must make sizable basis sales and ship every day during harvest. Selling more than 300,000 bushels won’t help in this case — according to your own blueprint this is the limit of your facility’s October/November shipping capacity. If you think receipts will exceed the calculated maximum, you need other arrangements such as going on the ground. The value is in knowing early, well before harvest, what you’ll face later, giving you plenty of time to make careful management decisions.