US Corn Ethanol Market: Understanding the Past to Assess the Future
Ethanol a factor in price run-up in 2006 and price run-down in 2013
Ethanol was a factor in both the price run-up that began in 2006 and the price run-down that began in 2013. Tepid growth replaced explosive growth. The question for the future is, "What is ethanol's organic growth rate (growth without government policy stimulus)?" Recent history suggests growth will continue in the corn ethanol market, but it likely will be notably lower than the growth in yields. Thus, upward pressure on corn prices is less likely.
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