Indigo Updates South American Production Forecast
EStimates have increased 1% for corn and 7% for soybeans
Indigo Agriculture, a company dedicated to harnessing nature to help farmers sustainably feed the planet, updates its South American corn and soybean production forecast for the 2019/2020 season.
Over the past month, Indigo’s estimates have increased 1% for corn and 7% for soybeans to 139 million metric tons (MMT) and 167 MMT, respectively.
In Brazil, Indigo forecasts 95 MMT of corn and 115 MMT of soybeans, based on projected yields of 5.4 tons per hectare for corn and 3.1 tons per hectare for soybeans, as well as area planted estimates of 17.5M hectares and 36.8M hectares, respectively. In Argentina, Indigo forecasts 44 MMT for corn and 52 MMT for soybeans, based on projected yields of 7.0 tons per hectare for corn and 2.9 tons per hectare for soybeans, as well as area planted estimates of 6.1M hectares and 17.5M hectares, respectively.
Indigo’s forecasts are below market consensus: the company is estimating 1 fewer MMT of corn and 8 fewer MMT of soybeans than the combined estimates of the United States Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) and Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (Conab), two of the industry’s common sources for monthly predictions.
Indigo’s forecasts are generated by its living map of the world’s food system, Atlas, through the application of machine learning to a combination of ground, weather, and satellite data. Models within the platform are updated daily to bring the latest insights to the company’s grower partners trading grain in Indigo Marketplace, a digital platform for direct grain transactions.
“While the market consensus for South American corn and soybean production are nearing record highs, Indigo’s analysis of the latest data tells a different story,” said Matt Beckwith, Director of GeoInnovation. “We have found that vegetative indices – which are useful predictors for yield – foretell an above average, rather than exceptional crop in both Brazil and Argentina.”
To track the dynamic variables that affect crops, Atlas leverages the Crop Health Index (CHI), a proprietary measurement of plant performance built and optimized for agriculture. The CHI is updated in real time, with new insights into the health of dozens of crops generated every day. The immediacy and accuracy of this information supports key decision making for growers, traders, investors, buyers, grain marketers, government agencies, and other industry players.
Rodney Connor, Sr. Director of Global Markets Intelligence and Analysis at Indigo, said, “As global demand gets more comfortable with sourcing crops from different countries, the South American corn and soybean season has even more of an impact on U.S. prices. While it is still early, we will be watching these real time insights closely through Indigo Atlas to see how our basis models and cash prices are affected.”
To access Indigo’s February Production Forecast and discover other agricultural insights, click here.