While not normally an issue, the March 1 soybean stocks estimate was also a surprise, Good said. “At 999 million bushels, the estimate was about 50 million bushels larger than the average trade guess. While the USDA no longer estimates quarterly feed, seed, and residual use of soybeans, the stocks estimate implies negative use in that category for the quarter. The only other instances of negative use during the second quarter of the marketing year in recent history were in 1988-89 and in 2009-10. The June 1 stocks estimate this year will also be difficult to anticipate.
“With the large March 1 stocks estimate, the ‘small, crop-long tail’ price pattern for corn and soybean prices continue. While planting intentions for corn and soybeans revealed on March 28 were near expectations, new crop prices have also weakened as expectations for larger stocks at the end of the current marketing year provide some additional supplies for the 2013-14 marketing year. Focus will now turn to planting conditions and planting progress. Without widespread planting delays, new crop-price weakness is expected to continue,” he said.