UIUC Weekly Outlook: Early Focus on 2013 Corn Crop
Meanwhile, 2012 demonstrates that “short crops have long tails”
A second consideration for some in forming early yield expectations is the state of soil moisture going into the planting season. However, as learned again last year, the yield implications of those conditions are dwarfed by the impact of growing season weather. While current drought conditions are of concern, those conditions alone do not provide much information about 2013 yield prospects.
While prices for the 2013 corn crop are currently about $0.70 below the peak reached in September 2012, they are well above the level that would be expected if the 2013 crop reached its full potential. Next month, the USDA will release projections for the U.S. farm sector for the next 10 years. There will be a lot of interest in the 2013 corn acreage and yield projections contained in that report.
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