UIUC: Corn and Soybean Prices Following Short-crop Pattern

Good commented that prices will also be influenced by the ongoing rate of consumption of the 2012 U.S. crops. For corn, there is some anticipation that the pace of export activity, which has been extremely slow to date, may accelerate as South American supplies dwindle and Asian customers return to the U.S. market.

“The larger issue, however, surrounds the pace of domestic feed and residual consumption,” Good said. “The USDA’s estimate of Dec. 1, 2012, stocks to be released on Jan. 11 will provide some much needed clarity to the rate of consumption in the last quarter of the 2011-12 marketing year and the first quarter of the 2012-13 marketing year. For soybeans, the National Oilseed Processors Association estimate of the size of the October crush is expected to be released later this week. That estimate will provide insight into the pace of crush relative to the projected rate. The pace of new export sales will also be important, with some concern about cancellations of earlier purchases by some customers.

“Prospects for further price declines for corn and soybean into 2013 favor pricing more of the old and new crop sooner rather than later.  However, the transition to lower prices will be erratic so that timing of sales will still be important.  Recent price declines, particularly for soybeans, seem to be a little excessive given the amount of production uncertainty,” Good said.