“As a whole, the current pace of corn consumption suggests that the smaller supplies are being sufficiently rationed,” Good said.
For soybeans, the very rapid pace of export sales has been widely recognized, Good said.
“As of Sept. 27, U.S. export commitments accounted for nearly 82 percent of the USDA’s forecast of exports for the year, with China as the primary buyer,” Good said. “The pace of sales obviously cannot be sustained but has not yet created concerns of shortages. The expectation of a large South American crop in 2013, ideas that China has already bought more than the usual share of its needs, and the possibility that the U.S. could import soybeans and/or soybean meal next summer if needed imply sufficient supplies,” Good said.
On the domestic side, the estimated size of the soybean crush in September is not yet available.
“While corn and soybean prices have declined sharply from their peaks, prices are still very high by any measure,” Good said. “The pace at which prices transition to lower levels will be determined by a number of factors, beginning with the USDA’s October production forecasts.”