As of Aug. 30, the USDA reported U.S. soybean export sales for delivery during the 2012-13 marketing year at 664 million bushels. Nearly 65 percent of those sales were to China, and 26 percent were to unknown destinations. Carryover sales from the 2011-12 marketing year will be nearly 70 million bushels, so export commitments total about 734 million bushels, two-thirds of the USDA projection for the marketing year. Weekly sales that averaged 25.4 million bushels for the four weeks ended Aug. 30 now need to average only 7 million bushels per week to bring sales to 1.1 billion bushels.
“The export demand for corn and wheat is important for prices of those commodities, but the impact is somewhat muted since corn exports are now a relatively small percentage of the total consumption of U.S. corn and domestic wheat supplies are relatively more abundant,” Good said. “The soybean production shortfalls experienced in 2012, in combination with continued large purchases by China, make the soybean export situation dicey. The large South American soybean crop expected in 2013 will be needed to avoid a severe rationing situation next spring and summer,” he said.