UIUC Weekly Outlook: Are Soybean Prices High Enough?

Good said November 2012 soybean futures increased by 36 percent from the low on June 4 to the high of $16.915 on July 23. Prospects for more normal precipitation levels in some northern and eastern growing areas, along with renewed concerns about European financial conditions, resulted in some modest price weakness during the session on July 23. As indicated last week, the window of time for expecting a peak in soybean prices extends from now through November, with a peak by September appearing most likely.

“Based on our yield expectations, it does not appear that prices are yet high enough to trigger the necessary decline in consumption,” Good said. “However, with considerable production and demand uncertainty, it is difficult to anticipate the timing and magnitude of a price peak.  Pricing increments of old and new crop soybeans over the next several weeks still appear to be a prudent strategy.”