UIUC Weekly Outlook: Expected Price Pattern for Corn and Soybeans

The price peak occurred early in 6 of those years (1970, 1974, 1980, 1983, 1988, and 2002) but ranged in timing from June to November.  Prices did not peak in the same month in any 2 of those 6 years.  In addition, the price peak occurred in January following the 1993 harvest and in July following the 1995 harvest. For the 1991 and 2011 crops, the price peaked in August before harvest and again later in the marketing year. 

For soybeans, 8 previous years might be described as short crop years. These include 1974, 1976, 1980, 1983, 1984, 1988, 1993, and 2003. Like corn, the timing of the price peak varied in those years. Prices peaked early, ranging from June to November, in 5 years; had a double peak in 1993-94 (July before harvest and June after harvest); peaked in April following the 1976 harvest; and peaked in March following the 2003 harvest.