UIUC Update on Export Progress

Good said China continues to be the major purchaser of U.S. soybeans (62 % to date) and has already made large purchases for delivery during the 2012-13 marketing year.

“It appears that corn exports will come up well short of 1.7 billion bushels, pointing to larger year-ending stocks than currently projected,” Good said. “Some of the shortfall in exports may be made up by slightly larger consumption for ethanol production as during the first three quarters of the year, ethanol production was about 2 percent larger than a year earlier.

“The big unknown, however, is the magnitude of feed and residual use of corn during the last half of the year. Quarterly use in that category has been difficult to anticipate over the past two years. The June 1 corn stocks estimate, along with the level of wheat prices, and the pace of maturity of the 2012 corn crop will shed more light on use in that category,” Good said.

Good said that while month-end acreage and stocks reports will be important for crop prices, prices will continue to be heavily influenced by 2012 yield prospects. 

“To date, the corn market has displayed relatively little concern about the cumulative and upcoming moisture deficits in large areas of the central, eastern, and southern growing areas,” Good said.