UIUC: The Soybean Price Roller Coaster

“Still, yield expectations will follow weather developments and condition ratings over the next three months,” Good said.  

“On the demand side, the pace of exports and export sales will be one of the most important price factors as the world adjusts to the small South American crop and troubling economic conditions,” Good said. “Export commitments for the current year ending August 31 exceed the USDA’s projection of 1.315 billion bushels for the year, which is not unusual,” Good said.

He added that sales for delivery during the 2012-13 marketing year had reached 393 million bushels as of May 24, the most ever for this early in the year, and that 77 percent of those sales were to China with 18 percent going to unknown destinations.  

“The small South American harvest and the strong pace of export sales suggest that soybean prices will be very sensitive to U.S. production prospects,” Good said. “Substantial price swings are likely to continue, providing producers with opportunities for additional sales of the 2012 crop.”