Wheat Quality Council Projects High Hard Winter Wheat Crop Yield

The Wheat Quality Council conducted its annual Hard Winter Wheat crop quality tour last week in Kansas and parts of Nebraska and Oklahoma. I joined a record 98 millers, bakers, traders, industry analysts and reporters in surveying the 2012 crop to get a snapshot of crop conditions and production potential. Our initial impressions suggested a larger crop than last year and early spring weather indicated the wheat is nearly three weeks ahead of schedule in many areas. After surveying more than 600 fields, we forecasted the highest yield since 1998, but we also saw disease pressure that could, together with other variables, affect final yields.

Last year, severe drought hit the southern plains region and significantly reduced production. Concerns about lingering drought remain in some areas, in particularly western Kansas and the Oklahoma panhandle, while the highest producing regions of central and south central Kansas had adequate moisture this year and looked lush.

Our final calculations estimated Kansas’s 2012 wheat production at 404 million bushels (11.0 MMT) with an estimated 49.1 bushels per acre (bpa),  equivalent to 3.34 metric tons per hectare (MT/ha). If realized, yields would edge out the previous record of 49.0 bpa set in 1998 and result in the largest crop since 2003. The yield estimate is up considerably from last year’s tour result of 37.4 bpa (2.54 MT/ha) and 21 percent higher than the five-year average of 40.6 bpa (2.76 MT/ha).

The crop is also progressing noticeably faster than previous years with 92 percent of wheat already headed, well above the five-year average of 20 percent, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). After examining the fields, we predicted Kansas farmers will start harvesting in three to six weeks, well ahead of normal.

Wheat experts on the tour cautioned that our yield forecast could overshoot the actual yield.

“I expect our forecast is a little high considering the disease pressure we saw,” said Ben Handcock, executive vice president of the Wheat Quality Council.

That disease pressure included barley yellow dwarf and stripe rust, leaf diseases that can considerably affect yields, in fields all across the region. Producers in central Kansas have taken aggressive measures to fight leaf rust this year. According to Kansas State University Agronomist Jim Shroyer, 30 percent of fields in the central corridor are treated with fungicide in a normal year, but 65 to 70 percent of the wheat was treated this year.

Of course, weather is always a concern until the crop is in the bin. Rain, wind and hail can all damage a crop and reduce both individual yields and total production. The early spring weather had many concerned that a late freeze would damage the emerging wheat, but most of the region appears to have avoided that situation. However, many fields across the state still need significant precipitation before the crop is harvested. Shroyer stressed, “timely rains are going to be very important from this point forward.”

The large yield estimates have prompted some to question the quality prospects for the Kansas crop. However, Handcock isn’t ready to speculate on quality.

“We won’t begin to see any quality issues until after harvest begins,” he said. “We won’t know anything until the wheat gets to an elevator somewhere and can be checked, it is much too early.”

Historically, the tour yield estimates generally tracks close to both the NASS yield forecast released in May every year and the actual yield results after harvest. Although the tour is just a sample of the region’s hard red winter (HRW) crop, it provides an excellent look at the crop progress and an accurate indication of production potential. For this reason, more participants have joined the tour and industry analysts closely watch estimates.

Handcock said his philosophy is “if we come close to the NASS estimates than we did our job.”