UIUC Weekly Outlook: Expectations for the 2012 to 2013 Corn-marketing Year

Good said that U.S. corn exports during the current year are projected at a relatively low level of 1.7 billion bushels, reflecting in part competition from the large world grain crop of last year.  Prospects for less competition from Argentina and perhaps from the Black Sea region next year, along with larger imports by China, point to a rebound in exports to near the long term average of 1.9 billion bushels. 

With food, seed and industrial use (excluding ethanol) near 1.425 billion bushels, total consumption next year might be near 13.325 billion bushels.  With beginning stocks of 800 million bushels and imports of 15 million bushels, stocks at the end of the 2012-13 marketing year would be near 1.79 billion bushels.  Stocks at that level would represent a stocks-to-use ratio of 13.4 percent.  Under this scenario, the 2012-13 marketing year average price would be expected to be in the $4.50 to $5.00 range.

The USDA’s May 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report will contain a forecast of the 2012-13 supply and demand balance for corn.

“A larger production estimate than used here will likely be reflected in that forecast as March acreage intentions, and probably a higher yield forecast, will be used,” Good said.