U.S. Wheat Crop Looks Good with an Early Spring and Improving Conditions

There is a reason the world’s most famous weather publication is called the Farmer’s Almanac. Weather is a major influence on a farmer’s livelihood and unseasonable warmth already has made this an interesting crop year for wheat. A lot of hard red winter (HRW) wheat pushed out of dormancy early and some hard red spring (HRS) growers are already planting their fields many weeks ahead of normal. Overall, crop conditions look good, but a shift in weather or a late freeze could quickly change the outlook.

Compared to last year, the Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas HRW crops are in better shape after much needed rain improved crop conditions last week. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), only 8 percent of Kansas HRW is in poor or very poor condition compared with 35 percent last year at this time. Much more of the crop, 48 percent, is in good condition, compared to 27 percent last year. In Texas, 70 percent of the state crop is reported fair to excellent compared to only 38 percent last year at this time. Current USDA estimates show Oklahoma’s HRW is in the best shape with only 6 percent rated poor, 19 percent rated fair, 56 percent good and 19 percent excellent. Former USW Chairman Don Schieber, who farms in north-central Oklahoma, said his wheat looks great and he expects it to begin heading in about two weeks. Concern about wheat in the panhandle and the southwestern regions of Oklahoma remains because subsoil moisture is well below normal.

Farther north, lack of snow cover and inadequate subsoil moisture left HRW more vulnerable to winterkill, but any impact should be light. In South Dakota, for example, there appears to be very little winterkill but USDA currently rates the winter wheat crop at 31 percent poor, 40 percent fair and 28 percent good. In Montana, recent snowfall extended dormancy for now. According to California Wheat Commission’s Executive Director Janice Cooper, the main challenge for non-irrigated HRW in California has been a lack of rain that will likely cut into yield potential. Irrigated wheat conditions there are normal.

Soft red winter (SRW) country has also been very warm, which is helping improve crop conditions and soil moisture following an extremely wet fall. Doug Goyings, chairman of the Ohio Small Grains Marketing Program, said farmers only planted about 60 percent of the area that was expected in Ohio, but the crop is generally in good condition.

Fall and winter were very dry in the Pacific Northwest, but rain in the last two weeks has helped improve soil moisture significantly. Preliminary indications show white wheat in Washington, Idaho and Oregon is on track for normal production. However, Washington Grain Alliance Chief Executive Officer Tom Mick pointed out that precipitation will be needed in May and June to realize the crop’s current potential. Fields in Idaho, where two-thirds of the wheat crop is irrigated, is in a good position with reservoirs nearly full and substantial spring rain greatly improving dryland farm prospects.

In the northern plains, some HRS growers are already planting. Field conditions in parts of South Dakota and Minnesota are ahead of schedule and planting should be in full swing in the next two weeks. According to Executive Director Dave Torgerson of the Minnesota Wheat Research and Promotion Council, an early planting season is typically good for spring wheat yields, barring a late freeze.

Poor weather and flood conditions significantly affected northern durum acres last year, resulting in more than a 50 percent decline in production. Drier conditions this spring should help acreage rebound to more normal levels.

Some HRW acres lost to winterkill in the Northern Plains could be replanted with spring wheat or durum, but many producers are weighing their options. Wheat faces strong competition for acres from a multitude of other crops. In Idaho, for example, wheat acres must compete with the high price of potatoes, sugar beets, alfalfa and barley, according to Executive Director Blaine Jacobson of the Idaho Wheat Commission.

In addition to economic and management factors, weather will play a critical role in producers’ decisions about what to plant and when as the season progresses. The first official nationwide acreage projections for 2012/13 crops will be available when USDA releases its Prospective Plantings report on March 30.