UIUC Weekly Outlook: Corn Yield Prospects

Good thinks that the yield implication of increased acreage is likely to be extremely small. “First,” he said, “some of the increase in corn acreage may occur in the higher yielding areas of the eastern Corn Belt since acreage there in 2011 was below the recent peak of 2007. Second, a 2 to 3 percent increase in acreage has the potential to only marginally impact the U.S. average yield even if all the increase was in low-yielding areas.”

While the 2012 yield debate will continue well into the growing season, the most logical expectation is for an average yield near the long-term trend. The trend yield for 2012 is just under 160 bushels per acre. The USDA’s early forecast for 2012 is for a yield of 164 bushels.

With harvested acreage projected at 87 million acres, a 4 to 5 bushel difference in the U.S. average corn yield represents a difference of 350 to 435 million bushels in crop size. Prospects of an average yield near 160 bushels would suggest that new-crop corn prices are probably low enough, while prospects for a yield of 164 bushels or higher would likely push prices marginally lower.

More detailed analysis will be provided in upcoming posts at farmdocdaily.