UIUC Weekly Outlook: Continued Weakness in Crop Prices

“In Illinois, for example, the average price received by farmers for corn delivered in September and October 2011 was about 40 cents below the average daily spot bid of country elevators during those two months. That difference implies that a substantial amount of corn delivered during those two months had been forward priced at lower levels,” he said.

Crop prices are expected to remain generally weak into the new calendar year, with some important support areas currently being tested, he said.

“After the first of the year, South American crop prospects will take on more importance. The continuation of the La Nia weather pattern could result in less than ideal weather conditions in parts of Brazil and Argentina. History suggests that the corn crop would more likely be impacted than would soybean production,” Good said.

Prices will also take direction from USDA’s Jan. 12 reports containing the final estimates for the size of the 2011 U.S. corn and soybean crops, the estimates of grain stocks on Dec. 1, 2011, and an estimate of winter wheat seedings, he added.