UIUC Weekly Outlook: Low and Slow Soybean Export Progress

Good said to reach the USDA projection for the year, new sales will need to average 15.5 million bushels per week from November 2011 through August 2012. For the two weeks ended October 27, new sales averaged only 8 million bushels per week. The pace of new sales and weekly shipments need to be followed closely to gauge the potential for marketing-year exports. In addition, the monthly Census Bureau export estimates should be monitored, as those are the official export estimates. The estimate of September 2011 exports will be released on November 10. 

“Typically, the difference between the USDA export inspection estimates and the Census Bureau estimates are small early in the year,” Good said. “In recent years, however, that difference has often become larger later in the marketing year.”

Good said by the end of the year, Census Bureau estimates were about 40 million bushels larger than USDA inspection estimates in the three years from 2007-08 through 2009-10. Last year, Census Bureau estimates for the year exceeded export inspections by only 14 million bushels.

The USDA will release new forecasts of U.S. and world soybean production and consumption for the current marketing year on November 9. 

“The market appears to be expecting the forecast of U.S. marketing year exports to be below the October forecast,” Good said. “A smaller forecast seems premature based on the current status of sales and shipments.