"Almost all of that reduction (125 million bushels) is expected to be in the export market, reflecting increased competition from South American soybeans. The domestic crush is expected to decline by 13 million bushels, or 0.8 percent," he said.
The Census Bureau has discontinued the monthly report of soybean crush so estimates will be based on monthly reports from the National Oilseed Processors Association. That report for September indicated an 11.7 percent year-over-year decline in the domestic crush. The pace will obviously have to accelerate in order to reach the USDA projection, Good said.
"The pace of U.S. soybean exports and export sales are running well below the torrid pace of a year ago. China bought and imported large quantities of U.S. soybeans early in the marketing year last year. Shipments plus outstanding sales are currently about 25 percent behind the level of a year ago, but the gap is expected to narrow over the next several weeks," he said.
Expectations about the strength of demand and the rate of corn and soybean consumption hinge on a combination of South American crop prospects and global economic conditions. Again, those factors will unfold over the next few months, he said.
"After the wide swings of the last three months, a much narrower trading range is expected for both corn and soybeans prices into the winter months," Good noted.