UIUC Weekly Outlook: No Room to Increase Corn Consumption

Domestic feed and residual use of corn during the 2011-12 marketing year is projected at 4.9 billion bushels, 2 percent below the projection for the current year. If supplies were available, feed consumption of corn would likely be larger than the USDA projection, he noted.

"The 2011 calf crop is expected to be only 1 percent smaller than the 2010 crop, dairy cattle numbers exceed those of a year ago, and pork production has stabilized. Placements of broiler chicks are down about 5 percent from those of a year earlier," he said.

Only a small increase in distiller's grain production is expected, less sorghum will be fed, and wheat feeding may decline next summer. The USDA expects high corn prices to limit corn feeding, he added.

According to Good, the use of corn for ethanol and co-product production is expected to increase by a very modest 80 million bushels (1.6 percent) during the year ahead. Ethanol production (consumption) will be influenced by total fuel consumption, gasoline prices, and perhaps the fate of the blender's tax credit.

Corn consumption during the year ahead could be rationed by weaker demand and/or higher corn prices. Ongoing economic and financial weakness speaks to some demand weakness, but the majority of any needed rationing will likely have to come from a continuation of high corn prices, he said.

"What remains to be seen is how much rationing, if any, will be needed. Based on the way the growing season is ending, the size of the 2011 crop could be smaller than the August projection, requiring even more rationing than currently anticipated," he said.