UIUC Weekly Outlook: Corn and Soybean Production Prospects

"Our examination of other years since 1975 with July weather conditions similar to 2011 results in a corn yield expectation in the 150- to 154-bushel range and a soybean yield expectation in the 41- to 43-bushel range," he said.

Good said interested persons could see details atwww.farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2011/08/hot_summer_weather_and_2011_co.html.

"Assuming (1) that Sept. 1, 2011, stocks of corn are about 50 million bushels larger than the current projection of 880 million bushels, (2) that demand weakness results in 2011-12 marketing year consumption about 150 million bushels less than the current USDA projection of 13.5 billion bushels, and (3) that minimum marketing-year ending stocks are 5 percent of consumption, the 2011 crop would need to be 13.085 billion bushels or larger to avoid the need for higher prices to curtail consumption," he said.

Based on the current forecast of 84.9 million acres harvested for grain, these assumptions imply a need for the average yield to be above 154 bushels, he said.

"For soybeans, Sept. 1 stocks that are 40 million bushels above the current forecast of 200 million bushels and consumption that is 100 million bushels less than the current forecast of 3.264 billion bushels implies the need for a 2011 crop of at least 3.08 billion bushels," he said.

Based on the current forecast of harvested acreage near 74.3 million, a crop of that size implies a need for the average yield to be above 41.5 bushels, he said.