UIUC Weekly Outlook: Corn Market Waiting on August Production Report

“Widespread high temperatures in the first half of July remain an issue,” Good said. “Crop condition ratings remain generally high. As of July 3, 69% of the crop in the 18 largest corn-producing states was rated in good or excellent condition in the USDA’s weekly Crop Progress report.”

A year ago, 71% of the crop was rated in good or excellent condition. Without considering the potential impact of late planting, current crop condition ratings point to a 2011 U.S. average corn yield well above the current USDA calculation of 158.7, he said.

“As we have learned in the past two years, however, condition ratings in early July are not always a good indicator of actual yield,” he said.

The USDA’s July WASDE report to be released tomorrow (July 12) will provide additional information about the likely level of stocks at the end of the 2010 and 2011 marketing years. As usual, the USDA’s August 11 Crop Production report will be highly anticipated. 

“Expect pre-report expectations about the size of the 2011 crop to be in a wide range. Until then, corn prices may remain in a relatively tight range compared to that of the past five weeks,” he said.