Taken at face value, the June 1 stocks estimate suggests that year-ending (September 1, 2011) stocks could be 200 million bushels or so larger than the most recent WASDE forecast of 730 million bushels. For the 2011-12 marketing year balance sheet, the increase is equivalent to an additional 1.25 million harvested acres of corn. The USDA's July WASDE report, to be released on July 12, will reflect revised expectations about 2010-11 marketing year consumption by category and the magnitude of year-ending stocks.
Ultimately, September 1, 2011 stocks will be reflected in the Grain Stocks report to be released on September 30. A year ago, says Darrel Good, the smaller-than-expected June 1 stocks estimate was followed by a larger-than-expected September 1 stocks estimate. Some believe the September 1, 2010 stocks estimate reflected the reporting of some newly harvested corn. However, Darrel Good believes that stocks estimate resulted in very logical estimates of corn consumption during the 2009-10 marketing year, seemingly "correcting" the small June 1 estimate. Still, he says last years' experience creates a bit more uncertainty about the September 1 stocks estimate this year and adds to the overall supply uncertainty stemming from acreage and yield uncertainty.