"Estimated use during the first half of the current year was unusually large, suggesting that third-quarter use could be less than normal. If use during the third quarter was near 28 million bushels, June 1 stocks should have been near 600 million bushels," he said.
According to Good, planted and harvested acreage forecasts for both corn and soybeans are more difficult to anticipate than is typically the case. Late planting in the eastern Corn Belt and northern Plains along with flooding in the Ohio, Mississippi and Missouri River Valley is thought to have reduced total cropland acres planted relative to intentions reported in the USDA's March Prospective Plantings report. Intentions were for 92.2 million acres of corn and 76.6 million acres of soybeans.
"The mix of acreage is still difficult to anticipate," he said. "Most believe that corn acreage is less than intended, but ideas have shifted from a loss of 3 to 4 million acres to a loss of less than 2 million acres. Corn acreage may exceed intentions in some western areas," he said.