Grains are sliding lower into this morning’s USDA report. Corn is down 2, soybeans off 4 and Chicago wheat is down 6 cents. Today’s USDA report will be released at 11:00 AM central time.
This morning’s USDA report will be the first survey based yield estimate of the year. Yield figures will be the focus of the report following a July that saw ample moisture in the eastern grain belt but a return of drought conditions in Nebraska and the Dakotas. Below are trade expectations for the report and our take on the numbers.
|
2014/15 Corn |
July Reported |
August Expected |
|
Production (MB) |
13,860 |
14,253 |
|
Yield (BPA) |
165.3 |
170.098 |
|
Ending Stocks (MB) |
1,801 |
2,005 |
|
2014/15 Soybeans |
July Reported |
August Expected |
|
Production (MB) |
3,800 |
3,823 |
|
Yield (MB) |
45.2 |
45.583 |
|
Ending Stocks (MB) |
415 |
414 |
Crop conditions were released yesterday at 3 PM CST and showed that the soybean good-to-excellent rating had slipped by one percent to 70%. The expectation for both corn and soybeans was to leave conditions unchanged. Corn’s good-to-excellent rating met those expectations by maintaining 73% of the crop rated good-to-excellent. Spring wheat conditions were also left unchanged at 70% good-to-excellent. Spring wheat harvest has officially kicked off with 6% of the crop harvested about on pace with the five year average.
China sold 23% of soybeans offered a state auction overnight. In total, 82,489 tonnes were sold compared to 69,243 in last week’s sale. This was a good signal for mainland Chinese demand, although it is important to note that most of the sales went to food companies who use non-GMO varieties exlusivle. Because of this, Chinese imports should not show a major impact from recent state auctions.
Please call our office if you have questions about speculative or hedge positions coming into the report. Our number is 877-472-4607and we are available between 8AM and 5PM central time.
