NOPA November Soybean Crush Falls Below Trade Estimates
NOPA’s November soybean crush activity dropped by nearly 6% from October and fell short of all trade estimates.
NOPA members, which handle about 95% of all soybeans crushed in the US, processed 164.909 million bushels (MBU) of soybeans in November, down from a record 175.397 MBU in October and 166.959 MBU in November 2018.
The crush was well short of the average trade estimate of 172.032 MBU.
November is traditionally among the most active months for soy crushing as more newly harvested beans are available.
FBN’s Take On What It Means: We believe that a steepening soybean basis amid tightening supplies throughout most of the US has compressed replacement, or spot, margins which has caused the crush pace to decline in November. If regional supplies are tight and local basis increases,we believe that the crush pace could soften from the record setting levels set in 2019.
Dryness Reduces Ukraine Winter Wheat Acres
Extreme dry autumn in Ukraine this year caused a nearly 10% drop in winter-wheat plantings.
The area that accounts for more than 95% of Ukraine's total wheat production fell to 5.93 million hectares (MHA) his year from 6.64 MHA last year.
Some regions reduced winter wheat plantings by 22%-25%.
Around half of Ukrainian winter wheat crops are rated in good condition, 38% as fair and 14% as poor.
Ukraine harvested 28.1 million metric tonnes (MMT) of wheat in 2019 compared with 24.6 MMT in 2018.
FBN’s Take On What It Means: We believe that contracting winter wheat acres in the Ukraine could be a positive for the US farmer in the 2020/21 crop year. While there is a long way until the Ukraine harvests their wheat crop in 2020, the prospect of less supplies in the Black Sea region could be a positive for the US wheat export program.
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