Blog Archives
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River Woes Push Basis Lower
By Cody Bills - Wednesday November 28, 2012
Basis came under pressure along much of the Midwest river system this week as terminals north of St. Louis slowed grain buying amid looming draft restrictions on the river due to low water levels. Basis levels for soybeans were off 4 cents on average along major river terminals this week, while corn river markets slipped half a cent for the week. However, corn basis was higher in the upper Midwest and Northern Plains as ethanol plants pushed basis levels higher by 1.5 cents a bushel on average for the week. Further to the South, river terminals from Memphis running to the Gulf were higher thanks to a 5-cent increase in basis at the Gulf export market this week. For soybeans, basis levels around the country average a 0.3 cent... -
Spike in Gulf Lifts Cash Basis
By Cody Bills - Monday November 19, 2012
In the last week we observed a firm increase in national corn and soybeans basis in the cash market. On average across the nation we watched spot corn basis rise 2 cents, while beans added nearly 3 cents. The river accounted for large basis increases this week with corn increasing on average 10 ½ cents and soybeans adding another 8 ¾ cents. The gulf bid moved sharply higher this week driven by demand for corn and soybeans delivered before any restrictions can be placed on barges. The continued dryness in the Midwest is still impacting the Mississippi river and if rain is not received within the next few weeks, there is a good chance we may see restrictions placed on the tow size and drafts of barges between St. Louis and Cairo, IL... -
Soy Basis Heats Up on Export Driven Demand
By Cody Bills - Monday November 12, 2012
Soybean basis was up 3 cents for the week as strong export business continues to lift interior basis levels. Robust business to China and others has helped fuel cash movement to Gulf ports. Year-to-date export shipments for soybeans are 57% higher than this time last year, and up 44% compared to the 5-year average pace of shipments at this time of year. At the Gulf, soybean basis bids were up 4 cents for the week, but many river markets got an added lift as barge rates backed off from their recent rally. For the week, river terminals across the U.S. posted an average 10-cent gain in basis levels. There were, however, areas of weakness in the East Coast as harvest continues in the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. Also, Iowa had key soybean... -
Barge Rates Decline, Spurring Basis at River Terminals
By Cody Bills - Friday November 2, 2012
Finally, after two weeks of barge rate increases, we observed a sharp decline across the river system. The St. Louis rate declined 19% last week giving soybean basis along the river space to improve 11 ¼ cents between Oct. 25 th and Oct. 31 st . Movement of soybeans through Mississippi river Lock 27 tapered off sharply, declining from a whopping 414 thousand tons (64% above the three year average) to only 147 thousand tons by Oct. 27 th . However, despite the minor lull in Soybean movement down the river, the Gulf bid should continue pulling soybeans at an above average pace. In the last week the soybean bid out of the Gulf increased 7 cents. Soybean Basis throughout the Eastern US continued to see harvest pressure. For the states... -
Barge Rate Spike Puts Pressure on River Markets
By Cody Bills - Friday October 26, 2012
Increases of 10 to 20 cents a bushel in barge rates the past week put significant pressure on river terminal basis. Thanks to strong demand for soybean barging, rates have begun to move higher which pressured river basis levels, with losses of 10 to 20 cents a bushel fairly common along the river system this week. For the week ending October 25, corn and soybean basis levels were up 1 cent a bushel on average across the country. In the corn market, Western Cornbelt ethanol plants continue to push hard on basis to meet their needs where +40 basis levels are fairly common by key buyers. In comparison, this time of year those same plants are generally paying -20 on basis. However, other ethanol plants around the country were more... -
After Harvest Lows Soybean Basis Rebound Remains Lackluster
By Cody Bills - Tuesday October 23, 2012
The basis lows were printed in the last week of September for both corn and soybeans on average throughout the nation. In just the last week, the national average basis for soybeans improved nearly a cent while corn basis continued climbing, up another 1 1/3 cents on the week. Despite the steady basis improvements observed since the harvest low, soybeans has not experienced the violent snapback in basis that it enjoyed during the same period last year. In 2011 the national soybean basis average improved 14 cents in the two weeks following the harvest low. This year, soybeans have improved a lackluster 3 ½ cents during the same period. Across the United States The slow basis improvement seen in soybeans this year could be caused... -
Harvest Low Short-Lived in Cash Grain Market
By Cody Bills - Monday October 15, 2012
If you blinked, you likely missed it this year. The usual drop in basis levels seen around harvest has been mostly non-existent this year, except for a few parts of the country with better supply prospects. Since September 1, corn basis has fallen only 5 cents while beans posted a more typical 20-cent loss. This year’s exceptionally tight stocks and production prospects continue to prop up basis levels for much of the country. For the week ending October 11, corn and soybean basis levels were up 2 cents a bushel on average across the country. Continued declines in barge rates coupled with harvest wrapping up in key grain producing areas is help giving a lift to basis through much of the Midwest. In the corn market, river terminals... -
Grain Barge Rates Sink, Lends Support to Grain Basis
By Cody Bills - Friday October 5, 2012
An early grain harvest this year has meant an earlier peak in barge rates. Over the past few days barge rates have begun to fall suggesting that the trend may be set for barge rates to continue the post-harvest harvest seasonal slide. Although average corn and soybean basis this week was up only modestly, areas around the River system posted solid gains thanks to 5 to 10 cent a bushel declines in barge rates. For corn, basis levels were mostly unchanged through the heart of the Cornbelt, but Eastern areas saw more weakness as harvest hits full swing. Areas along the River system saw higher basis with average corn basis at river terminals jumping 4 cents for the week even though the Gulf basis was off 1 cent. At ethanol plants, basis... -
Volatility Creeps into Cash Grain as Market Bridges Old & New Supplies
By Cody Bills - Tuesday October 2, 2012
Grain harvest continued its quick progression this week, but some areas of the country saw unusually strong upside basis moves. Overall, however, the US average corn basis was mostly unchanged while soybeans were off 1 cent over the past week. Impressive gains at some key end users were noted for corn this week in NE, IA & IL, but overall ethanol plants as a group were off -0.7 cents for the week. River terminals were mostly higher propelled by strength out of the Gulf and a modest decline in barge rates on the Southern Mississippi River region, although more northern areas of the Mississippi and Ohio saw stronger barge rates and weakening basis. In the bean market, basis levels continued to fall overall but pockets of strength... -
Cash Grain Update -- Sept. 14
By Cody Bills - Thursday September 13, 2012Spot corn and soybean basis has made slight gains so far this month. Spot corn moved up half a cent while spot soybeans increased a penny. The Gulf has done little to support both markets as corn basis gained one cent and soybean basis actually lost four cents. Barge rates also hampered the cash market as prices along the Illinois and Ohio Rivers have gone up couple cents in the last nine days. Rates on the Ohio River are currently sitting four cents above their five year average. Taking a look at the carry in the cash market, storage for both corn and soybeans looks unfavorable. The average cash forward contract carry in the corn and soybean markets is 9 cents per bushel for five months of storage. This compares to...
