June 26, 2014 | Grain Hedge Insights | Cody Bills | Views: 643

Will the U.S. Run Out of Soybeans?

Strong weekly soybean export sales indicates demand responding to early June selloff.

Will the U.S. Run Out of Soybeans?

Soybean export sales were reported at 317,200 – well above trade expectations for around 150,000 tonnes sold. This morning’s report included the large reportable sale of 140,000 tonnes to unknown destinations from last week. This was a very strong week for U.S. soybean exports, considering the fact that excluding the large reportable sale it would have been the largest week for U.S. soybean sales since March. Keep an eye on the July and August soybean contracts as the market opens this morning. 

Corn export sales were reported at 321,000 tonnes, also above trade expectations for this morning’s report. Our models now indicate that U.S. export sales of old crop corn are running 145 million bushels ahead of pace to meet USDA expectations. Wheat export sales were very strong, but in line with trade expectations. Gulf basis for SRW wheat has moved 20 cents higher in the last week as export demand and quality issues at harvest have forced merchandisers to improve their spot wheat bids.

The cash basis at the gulf has increased in the recent days as moisture during flowering has elevated the levels of Vomitoxin. The quality of SRW wheat does not meet quality standards leaving exporters willing to pay a premium for high quality wheat. The Kansas City wheat market was also supported by confirmation that Brazil has postponed the usual 10% import tariff for up to 1 million tonnes of wheat through August 15th, a terrify that usually applies to U.S. and Canadian wheat. Brazil was forced to take action after concern about supplies from Argentina which is Brazil’s primary source of wheat.

For corn and soybeans traders are mostly focusing on the USDA acreage report and quarterly stocks numbers. Soybeans quarterly stocks will be closely watched as analysts expect the smallest stocks since 1977.  This morning soybeans are trading higher, moving up through its 100 day moving average, but still within the consolidation range that we have traded in since the 13th. 

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